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A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

Savio, N.D. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2013) A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning. International Journal of Forecasting, 29 ((2)). pp. 311-321. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002

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Abstract

An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Research Publications
Departments: College of Business, Law, Education and Social Sciences > Bangor Business School
Date Deposited: 09 Dec 2014 16:44
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2015 03:07
ISSN: 0169-2070
URI: http://e.bangor.ac.uk/id/eprint/904
Identification Number: DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.002
Publisher: Elsevier
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