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Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events

Nikolopoulos, K. and Litsa, A. and Petropoulos, F. and Bougioukos, V. and Khammash, M. (2015) Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. Journal of Business Research, 68 (8). pp. 1785-1791. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

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Abstract

Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics is challenging because of their nature and the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. This study evaluates the performances of structured analogies, the Delphi method and interaction groups in forecasting the impact of such events. The empirical evidence reveals that the use of structured analogies leads to an average forecasting accuracy improvement of 8.4% compared to unaided judgment. This improvement in accuracy is greater when the use of structured analogies is accompanied by an increase in the level of expertise, the use of more analogies, the relevance of these analogies, and the introduction of pooling analogies through interaction within experts. Furthermore, the results from group judgmental forecasting approaches were very promising; the Delphi method and interaction groups improved accuracy by 27.0% and 54.4%, respectively.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Research Publications
Departments: College of Business, Law, Education and Social Sciences > Bangor Business School
Date Deposited: 15 Apr 2015 02:21
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2015 02:48
ISSN: 0148-2963
URI: http://e.bangor.ac.uk/id/eprint/3693
Identification Number: DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037
Publisher: Elsevier
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